ELearning.com Predictions compile a broad set of sources – something for everyone but perhaps not as much critical analysis and focus as might be helpful.
E-Learning.com Predictions
17 May
Having looked at several of the projections resources I have found the ‘predictions’ section of e-learning.com to be one of the most interesting ones. The first reason for this is the breadth of learning technologies and trends that this source covers. The other reason is that while it attempts to predict trends for the coming year, it also highlights the development in how different technologies have been viewed and used over time by means of the hype curve. The 2019 hype curve was created by using data analytics on twitter feeds of a number of influencers while past hype curves were created by the website authors only. As there is a hype curve for the last 4 years, readers can compare the accuracy of past predictions with the reality of their experience with the particular technology or area of e-learning. This makes the resource particularly useful to instructional designers and learning technology specialists, especially if they are considering using or implementing a particular technology in their professional context. Admittedly, educators who are not in direct contact with a range of e-learning technologies may not find the resource as valuable for their day to day teaching practice. I will come back to this site in the future to check how the hype curve for various technologies has changed and to see how my own assessment or ‘feeling’ about several areas of e-learning that I am interested in compare.
12 Sep
I enjoyed this ELearning page for predictions as it is a very user friendly page to almost click bait us ELearners into reading every article of the various predictions that were posted. I enjoyed reading the Hype Curve page, particularly the Plateau of Productivity page that discusses MOOTs. As Hicken stated in his prediction on MOOCS: "MOOCs: We will go against the grain a bit here and argue that MOOCs AREN’T DEAD. Our evidence? All the MOOCs out there. And all the quasi-MOOCs in higher education and CE: the cheap online master’s degrees that seemingly every big-name university is now offering. These online courses might be less massive and open than a purist’s MOOC, but there’s no question that the universities experimented with the Coursera model and learned from it. Even our own Masters Classes have become more MOOC and less Coursera. Hicken goes on to defend the MOOC by stating that the class of online master’s degrees is not open, but it is more open. These are either MOOCs or quasi-MOOCs, and if you can accept that shift in meaning, then MOOCs are enjoying a thriving productivity. There is a great deal of information for learning ventures, K-12, higher education, and corporate to analyze the digital trends. Although I agree that "Expert market predictions are a lot like fast foods – there’s an unaccountable appetite for them relative to their questionable nutritional value", they still possess the feeling of having "an edge" on the future. Bookmark the page for release of the 2019 eLearning Hype Curve that is scheduled to be released on Nov. 27th.
11 Jan
As Robert mentioned, I also find the Hype Curve very interesting, (and easy to comprehend) but what is more intersting and enjoyable to be was how these curves change from year to year. As I look into these graphs I noticed that these technologies has different speeds at completing the curve from innovation trigger to plateau of productivity. For instance, Subscription Learning has a fast route from on Innovation trigger for 2016, to peak position for 2017 to trough of disillusionment for 2018. On the other side, Electronic Health Record Systems (EHRs) are on the innovation trigger for the last 3 years, and when you look closer you can see that some of the uncertainties around government policies can have an effect on the technology. I find these studies valuable as they present not only the how technologies themselves change but also the how the policies, customers respond evolves around these technologies.
10 Jan
I plan to revisit this page to see future trends that they publish. The yearly Hype Curve is what I find to be the most interesting. As an LMS provider it makes sense that they would be concerned with these trends; seeking to incorporate them into their products and creating these charts and other white papers to get people visiting their site and aware of who they are. While it may not provide critical analysis of these trends, it provides additional information on what these trends are and ways that they can be used by teachers or educational institutions. Other eLearning ventures can also use this information to make sure they are staying on trend and possibly look into tying their solutions with this company. While the overall hype around these areas ins't too important to me, knowing what is up-and-coming does provide great insight for what I may want to research further as something to bring into my class. No matter how much analysis one website provides, I will always search out more information externally as well. I believe this to be true of most professionals. This resource can get you on your way quickly. It is also one of the few sources provided that continues to publish trends yearly. In my own search, I only found trends for right now that did not seem to have a periodic release/update schedule and did not actually provide much value. While what is published may be biased towards their own products, it also adds credibility as they should know their own industry to a large extent. This site is simple, straight-forward and I believe the trends reported are on track. Some of the trends listed I had only heard of last semester from a fellow student, showing that this could be a way to stay up-to-date after graduation.
